This is an earlier experiment. Read the amendments below before treating its findings as current.
The question
At 600 craft, wind cut losses mainly by cutting meetings. Does that hold at 300 and 900 craft, and does wind make meetings deadlier, as hinted?
What was tested
48 runs with 5 m/s wind from 250° at 300 and 900 craft, with perfect information and a 1 s delay, against calm. Then 72 fresh-layout runs with perfect information.
What was found then
At 900 craft with the 1 s link, wind cut meetings to 0.39× of calm and losses to 0.32×, but still lost 810 craft in 12 runs. With perfect information on fresh layouts, wind cut losses to 0.53× (600 craft) and 0.40× (900), on every layout. The hint that wind makes meetings deadlier failed its test, though only just, so a smaller excess is not ruled out. An earlier sign that wind is worse at 300 craft did not repeat.
What we learned later
Remaining loose phrases ('as deadly', 'comparable closing speed') were narrowed to what the test shows: a total count inside the range set in advance, with the fastest closing-speed group having no upper limit.
research/design/s5_wind_nolink.md:35 (Reading, c267 note)
These results are for wind from 250°; wind from 70° did not give the same benefit consistently.
research/design/s5_wind_dir.md:20
What changed
Nothing.
Numbers and source references
- 48
- wind runs at 300 and 900 craftresearch/design/s5_conj.md (Spec) and :34
- 0.39×
- meetings in wind vs calm, 900 craft, 1 s linkresearch/design/s5_conj.md:34
- 0.32×
- losses in wind vs calm, 900 craft, 1 s linkresearch/design/s5_conj.md:34
- 810
- craft lost in the 900-craft wind 1 s cell over 12 half-hour runsresearch/design/s5_conj.md:34
- 72
- fresh-layout runs with perfect informationresearch/design/s5_wind_nolink.md:35
- 0.53× / 0.40×
- wind vs calm losses at 600 / 900 craft, perfect information, fresh layoutsresearch/design/s5_wind_nolink.md:41
- 1.25 and 1.20
- wind meeting deadliness relative to calm's expectation at 600 / 900 craft (band up to 1.25)research/design/s5_wind_nolink.md:41
- 0.85×
- wind vs calm losses at 300 craft, fresh layoutsresearch/design/s5_wind_nolink.md:41
- 12
- half-hour runs in that cell (6 layouts × 2 emergency-craft versions)research/design/s5_conj.md (Spec, Rows)
- 5 m/s from 250°
- wind in these runsresearch/design/s5_conj.md (Spec, Rows)