This is an earlier experiment. Read the amendments below before treating its findings as current.
The question
Under the new default the wing's collisions per craft-hour still grow about elevenfold from 8 to 22 m/s. Which step in the chain carries that?
What was tested
Collisions were split into close meetings per hour, the share turning serious (over halfway into a reference spacing), and collisions per serious meeting, from runs on file for four airframes. Then 15 wing runs were re-flown to see how serious meetings end, and a test doubled the wing's acceleration.
What was found then
Close meetings, counted as entries into a reference zone that itself grows with speed, rose about 11×, roughly as speed to the power 2.4, which alone carries the growth. The serious share rose 2.6×. At speed, serious meetings went deeper relative to the larger zone and lasted longer, yet fewer ended in collision (15.8 % falling to 6.7 %). The acceleration test was void: the reference zone shrinks when agility rises. The multirotor had too few serious meetings to judge.
What changed
nothing
Corrections retained in the record
Earlier wording: the share of serious encounters reaching three-quarters depth rises from 1.8 % at 8 m/s to 8.2 % at 22 (57 to 1,637 such encounters over five seed sets)
Record correction: 57 and 1 637 are all serious (at least half-depth) encounters, not the ones reaching three-quarters depth; the latter are 1.8 % and 8.2 % of them.
research/data/oos/tau_slope_outcome.md (wing J2 rows)
Numbers and source references
- about elevenfold / 11×
- wing collisions and encounters per craft-hour, 22 vs 8 m/s (11.3×)research/design/tau_slope_answer.md §2.1
- four; five
- airframes; wing seed offsetsresearch/data/oos/tau_slope_decomp.md
- 15
- wing runs re-flownresearch/data/oos/tau_slope_turn.md
- 2.4
- exponent of encounters vs speed (2.38)research/design/tau_slope_answer.md §2.1
- 2.6×
- growth in share of encounters that get seriousresearch/design/tau_slope_answer.md §2.1
- 15.8 % / 6.7 %
- serious encounters ending in a collision at 8 / 22 m/sresearch/data/oos/tau_slope_turn.md