Do the findings hold with half the traffic, and a third more?

We learned the lane findings hold at half the traffic, where wing losses drop 8–19×; at 1,600 craft, no wind makes the wing safe.

This is an earlier experiment. Read the amendments below before treating its findings as current.

The question

Lane findings so far used 1,200 craft. Do they carry over to 600, and what does wind do at 1,600?

What was tested

Calm 600-craft grids at three copying strengths for ideal craft (instant response) and wing (12 runs). The wing in 0–5 m/s wind at 1,600 craft, with and without the look-ahead (144 runs).

What was found then

At 600 craft the ideal craft's straggling is only 11–18 % smaller, and some pair is in a close call 9 % of the time instead of 49 %. The wing loses 6–12 craft per run instead of 100–154: 8–19× fewer for half the fleet. At 1,600 craft its collision rate is 1.6–2.1× the 1,200 figure, for a third more craft. The look-ahead still removes 60–69 % at every wind, and losses still drop sharply between 2 and 3 m/s. No wind makes it safe: 670 of 19,200 craft lost at 5 m/s, 2,992 in calm.

What we learned later

LATER / CYCLE 111

Narrowed: 'carries over' means within a tolerance set in advance, not proof that straggling owes nothing to traffic; an explanation based on counting pairs was withdrawn.

research/envelope.md:4465

LATER / CYCLE 112

Withdrawn: 'layout-to-layout variation is small, so single runs carry weight'. At 600 craft, changing the layout moves losses by 2–6 craft, as much as the copying effect.

research/envelope.md:4430

LATER / CYCLE 116

In the summary, the ratios of craft lost (2.1–2.7×) and of collision rates (1.6–2.1×) between 1,200 and 1,600 craft were reported separately.

research/envelope.md:245

What changed

Nothing.

Numbers and source references

12: 600-craft runs (3 strengths × 2 airframes × 2 starts)research/envelope.md:4465; research/envelope.md:4430
11–18 %: how much smaller the ideal craft's tail is at 600 craftresearch/envelope.md:4465
9 % vs 49 %: share of time some pair is in breach at full copying, 600 vs 1,200research/envelope.md:4465
6–12 / 100–154: wing craft lost per run at 600 / 1,200 craftresearch/envelope.md:4430
8–19×: wing loss ratio 1,200 vs 600 craftresearch/envelope.md:4465
144: wind runs at 1,600 craftresearch/envelope.md:4379
0–5 m/s: wind rangeresearch/envelope.md:4379
1.6–2.1×: wing collision rate at 1,600 vs 1,200 craftresearch/envelope.md:4379
60–69 %: share of the collision rate removed by the look-ahead at each windresearch/envelope.md:4379
670 of 19,200 / 2,992: wing craft lost at wind 5 / in calm, 1,600 craft, 12 runsresearch/envelope.md:4379

Original structured record ↗